Saturday, April 28, 2018

Anaheim Game 1

A few comments on the Friday night game in Anaheim as many people might not have watched this close game.

1.       Sanchez might have been crossed up but if he was it was because he started to give signs before Severino was looking…Regardless, he missed a low fastball that allowed two runners to move up and then Severino allowed a bench-clearing hit.  A play like that from a catcher can make it hard on a pitcher.  IN a close game to fall behind 3-2 because of that at the end of 7 innings is rough.

2.       After not scoring in the 8th when it looked like Stanton was going to hit a 2 run HR that was caught at the wall was a little disheartening…especially when Walker hit 2 balls right to the wall with men on base as well.  The 2nd one set off a very odd play.  It was 2nd and 3rd with 1 out and Walker hit one very deep where the OF jumped up and caught the ball, both Didi (on 3rd) and Stanton on 2nd tagged up and advanced; the throw eventually went to 2nd base where the called Stanton out for not tagging up; but they ruled that Didi scored before the out was made at 2nd, therefore, the run counted (to give us a 2-1 lead).  The replays showed that Stanton did tag up, but that Didi might not have scored first if Stanton hadn’t tagged up.  The fielder may not have been on the base as he shuffled his feet and stepped on the bag after Didi had scored.  Regardless, I have no idea why Boone didn’t review the tag up as it was clear Stanton had tagged up???  I am assuming that you can review a tag up play like that and the announcers were wondering why Anaheim didn’t review the play and I think it is because it would be found Stanton was safe on 3rd tagging up and they figured take the out and give up the run rather than give up the run and the inning is still going.  What was Boone thinking?

3.       It set up for an exciting 9th inning as the Yankees loaded up the bases with one out and the Boone pinch hit Gardner for Torreyes (I was good with this move).  Gardner hit a shallow sac fly to tie the game and setup Didi hitting another HR in the 10th inning. 

4.       In the bottom of the 10th Chapman got the first 2 outs and the 3rd batter waived at a fastball inside as he was sitting on the fastball.  I said to my daughter that he should throw a curve ball; instead, he threw another fastball down and in (easiest pitch to get the barrel on) and he doubled down the line.  Fortunately, Chapman threw well and got the next guy to pop up and get our 7th win in a row.  Nice work team!

5.       BTW, I was sure that Stanton’s hit was a HR and was surprised it didn’t go over the wall…the replay showed he got it off the end of the bat but I thought it was gone.


6.       Anaheim’s RF’r made two great catches in the game; one was an all-out dive and the other was the leaping catch on Walker.

Friday, April 27, 2018

WALK OFF WIN!

 I was Watching the game on delay (as usual) and speaking to a reader of this blog on the phone while preparing for the draft at 8 pm when Minnesota’s closer (Fernando Rodney – the righty pitcher who wears his hat like a lefty) got on the mound in the 9th inning with the good guys trailing 3-1.  I said something like we can hit this guy, we have gotten him many times.  I don’t know if my perception was right or not, but he has been an average closer with the exception of one truly great year in 2012.  Watching our first 2 guys get on via an error and a weak play, we were in business with nobody out.  Rodney is a 95 MPH fairly straight fastball and an excellent changeup guy.  Sanchez sat on the fastball and got one inside (a ball) but turned on it and the only question was whether it was fair…in fact, I saw the swing and said, (not a manly) “ooh, stay fair” as I thought it would go foul…but it stayed fair and we had our (I think) first walk off HR of the year!  Love that feeling! 

1.       Our defense has been pretty sloppy so far this year, but I don’t think it is anything to be concerned about with the exception of Sanchez who still has work to do behind the plate

2.       Not to contradict my first statement, while Andujar has been good in the field so far, he has played a few balls off to the side where he easily could have moved his feet on and that may lead to some issues later on.  He did miss a ball playing “2nd base” on a shift and he was slow with his feet, but being out of position could have a lot to do with that…anyway, something to look at

3.       Tyler Austin has played a good first base (he did just miss a line drive yesterday that he might tell you he could have had but not an easy play) and has hit really well.    He has a .991 OPS right now (3rd on team behind Didi 1.245 and Judge 1.122) which is hard to imagine continuing, but let’s ride it as long as we can.  His suspension was reduced to 4 games and I assume he will start it immediately.

4.       Hicks had an important sac fly in the game yesterday to chip away at the 3 run deficit and has played well.  I think he is important, because if he can give us the .836 OPS he has so far, we should be a potent offense.  This is a very encouraging trend so far in this young season.

5.       While on encouraging trends, I got what I wanted in having two rookies starting for us at 2nd and 3rd base and so far it looks very promising!  Andujar has an OPS of .869 which is excellent for a star player; if he could maintain an .800 it is a huge success at this young age.  And Gleyber Torres looks like a kid who belongs as well.  While he missed a throw and took another throw more in front of the bag on a steal than he should, he seems like he does everything well (maybe not great though).  He can run, field, throw and swing the bat all very well. 

6.       Gardner has not had a good start to the year hitting with a .657 OPS, but the biggest disappointment has been Walker who is having his worst year in the majors (.435 OPS is putrid).  I assume when Austin is out, Walker will get his chance to get back on track (and he will be better than this as nobody without injury drops off like this).

7.       Betances has shown some life, but if he comes in and throws the ball all over the place yank him quickly.  The other day he walked a guy missing badly and I told my son take him out now…an air ball to first error and another walk and hit later (with a K in between) and he was out of there.  His stuff is fantastic, but you can’t count on him and need a quick trigger…getting him right would be huge though so we have to try.

8.       Gray and the Minnesota starter were both bad.  They each missed on so many pitches and the teams made them pay.  Gray better get himself straight as he has not looked good yet.

9.       Robertson was really sharp yesterday showing good cutter movement and a sharp bite on his curve; now he needs to get more pin pointed on his location.  He has not used his cutter inside to lefties this year.

10.   This is another shot at Oneill (He actually has been better and made some good comments along with being entertaining, but…) he doesn’t understand advanced stats and analytics.  He still talks about shifting and how it is a fad, he has even stated that platooning doesn’t allow a guy to get better against the other side, and while there is a little truth to that and he is a good example of how a player can get better with that opportunity, there is a reason why he had an OPS of .888 against righties and .699 against lefties.  Anyway, he made a comment about how pitchers play around too much when they get you at 0-2 and should go after a hitter because a friend of his shared with him that batter hit under .200 on a 0-2 count.  While accurate (I remember the number around .165), there is a reason for this.  The main one is that pitchers should not be going right after hitters on a 0-2 count, they should nibble or make a great pitchers pitch on the black.  Michael Kay actually said, that wasting a pitch is different than throwing a waste pitch and I kind of agree with that.  My take is that a waste pitch should be a setup pitch or a pitch close enough for a batter to possibly expand the strike zone for (depends on the batter and the situation on which approach I would take).  A wasted pitch is one that the batter had no chance of swinging at because it was so bad and also doesn’t set up the rest of the AB.  The point is that armed with a good stat Oneill didn’t understand how to use it or what it meant (of course average isn’t as good as OPS either).  I decided to find the numbers and this shows the MLB avg AFTER the count so getting to an 0-2 puts the pitcher in the driver’s seat (slightly different than the actual batting on an 0-2 count as I couldn’t find that stat)
After 0-1 count: .221 average, .592 OPS
After 0-2 count:
.166 average, .438 OPS
After 1-0 count:
.268 average, .796 OPS
After 2-0 count:
.281 average, .955 OPS
After 3-0 count:
.282 average, 1.209 OPS  
After 1-1 count:
.234 average, .656 OPS
After 2-1 count:
.252 average, .781 OPS
After 3-1 count:
.274 average, 1.029 OPS
After 1-2 count:
.178 average, .489 OPS  
After 2-2 count:
.193 average, .584 OPS
On a 3-2 count:
.216 average, .792 OPS


SIX IN A ROW!!!!

Sunday, April 22, 2018

April 22

Bullet points from a big win as I said before; Toronto will be one of the teams we are fighting against for the WC (if we don’t win the division)

1.       Severino amazes me that he can throw so hard after 100 pitches.  He is also working on his change and slider more and that is a good thing.  If he doesn’t want to throw a curve I would like him to throw a harder slider and a softer one just to have more of a change of speed, but the 3 pitches are still very effective even when his control was not very good.  He didn’t locate well and it had nothing to do with an umpire who was not very consistent. 

2.       I don’t like the strike zone box; I find it distracting when the bat hits the ball.  They should use it after live action for a replay, but get it off my screen during live action.  It also doesn’t take into account the size of the hitter form what I see.

3.       Stanton has not been hitting but his defense is better than advertised so far (when he has played).  He made a really nice catch saving a double and hitting the wall.

4.       I like that Boone used Robertson and Chapman in a 4 run game even though it wasn’t a save.  1) It is important to beat Toronto and 2) They needed the work.

5.       Last game I talked about O’Neill and some of the mistakes he makes; outside of a call here or there, he analyzed how Sanchez was pulling off the ball and why he didn’t hit the outside pitch.  They then showed an overhead view where he was stepping toward 3rd and the pitch he took for strike 3.  As O’Neill was talking about how you can’t hit that way, Sanchez got a slider slightly more outside than middle of the plate and ripped it to left field for a double.  O’Neill then went on to talk about the great adjustment only one AB later.  However, I went back as they looked similar to me…and it was similar.  The reason why it was successful was that the pitch was over the middle of the plate and the other one was outside and Sanchez didn’t even swing at it.  O’Neill tried to prove his point rather than search for the truth.

6.       Welcome to the team Gleyber Torres!  Not a great start making 5 outs in 4 AB’s and leaving 7 guys on base (the rest of the team combined left 6).  That being said, you have to love the youth movement; the Yankees started a team with everyone under 30 years old!

7.       Boston lost to Oakland!

4-21-18 Game

Some notes on the Saturday win…

·         Gardner made a nice running catch that I would argue very few LF’rs make and he made it look fairly easy because of a great jump on the ball, the line he took and his speed.  Later in the broadcast, it stated he went 100’ for the catch and the catch probability was 43%.  I am not sure about 43% as I am fairly certain that less than 25% of the league would have caught that ball, but it is interesting anyway and why Gardner is so important.  He isn’t squaring up the ball so far this year, but I hope that will change soon.

·         Montgomery has a good starting pitcher repertoire of pitches.  His fastball is 90-91, but has a little life, he has a very good changeup that dips, has a good curve and throws the slider occasionally.  He is not overpowering, but when controlling the fastball on the inner half of the plate (on righties), he can be extremely effective and we have seen that so far.  Control and keeping batters off balance is key, but he is a pitcher (as opposed to a thrower). 


·         There were some good battles with Montgomery in the game and Cone does an excellent job of pointing those situations out.  Because I watch on video (after the fact without knowledge of the outcome) most of the time, I tend not to listen to the announcers because I fast forward in between pitches, but Cone is the best IMO.  Kay calls pitches wrong frequently and O'Neill does too, but in some ways that is part of the charm of O'Neill as long as Cone is there to balance him with common sense and statistics.

·         In my preseason blog, I stated how much “I love watching his stick come through the zone,” in regards to Miguel Andujar, and he has been showing that ability of late.  The 23-year-old still is too much a free swinger, but he showed last night what he could do when he doesn’t chase every pitch.  He fell behind 0-2 but then worked the count to 2-2 including fouling off a pitch and then got a 2-2 slider that he smoked over the LF’rs head to clear the bases.  In his last 4 games, he is hitting .438 with an absurd 1.533 OPS to get his overall OPS to a solid.795 (after an awful start)


·         Judge is swinging well (1.106 OPS).  Outside of his long HR on a low inside pitch, I was impressed that he was covering the outside pitch well but when needed he turned around an inside fastball at 97 for a ripped pulled single.  He may have to “cheat” his swing to do it but the fact he can cover both sides of the plate well is a huge reason why he is so effective (on top of his massive strength).


·         Stanton has been awful at Yankee stadium with an anemic OPS of .475 (.119 BA striking out 20x in 42 AB’s), but on the road, he has an OPS of 1.094 (BA .323).  Very odd, but one would think he could figure out why he isn’t seeing the ball well at home.  Hard to think it is pressure as he has been in pressure spots, although he may be trying to impress too much?  He will work it out, but we need another 160 points of OPS to get him .900.

   Not sure you are aware, but Sean Manaea of Oakland pitched a no-hitter against the Red Sox last night!


Saturday, April 21, 2018

Games 4/19 and 4/20

Thursday 4/19 game:

I like the lineup with Didi in between Judge and Stanton; that was my original thought and I think it is just better for the later matchups and so a pitcher can’t get into a groove against many righties in a row.

Wade still seems overmatched to me I just don’t see what the scouts see) and Torreyes should be playing at least until Torres gets called up or Drury comes back as Torreyes has been hitting well.   This may seem strange but Torreyes is he isn’t a great defender.  He is adequate, especially for a backup but he does not possess a great arm or glove; he is quick though.  Obviously, he doesn’t have power and doesn’t walk a lot, but he does square up the ball very well for a solid batting avg. 

This was the type of game where we should be stronger than other teams.  We turned it over to the bullpen and with the exception of Robertson (who really struggled with control), the pen was excellent.  In the middle was Betances who pitched the 7th in a 2 run game.  I say that because if he would have done poorly, many of us would have questioned Boone for using him in that spot because it was not a mop up situation.  I didn’t have an issue with it, mostly because having him straightened out is important because of the upside; but I would have had a very quick hook.  If he walked the first batter he was out.  Ironically, Betances had an excellent/clean inning and turned it over to Robertson who allowed a single and two walks (on 9 pitches).  Fortunately, Toronto helped him work out of the jam with only 1 run by missing some very hittable mistakes.  Chapman was very sharp in striking out the side in the 9th, elevating his fastball after mixing in the curve.

Friday 4/20 Game:

While it is very early in the season and it has been a cold month of April (after what I read was the 5th hottest March ever), these Toronto games are very important.  Why?  Toronto will be one of the teams we will fight for the WC against.  Injuries can change a lot, but as I mentioned before, Boston is a very good team (not 17-2 good, but you have to think that 100+ wins is highly probable).  

I was very disappointed with Gray’s performance.   His stuff wasn’t bad and at times you had to give credit to Toronto for some good hitting (mostly fighting off some good curves), but Gray just didn’t have control and that is key to his game.  This game was lost because the Yankee pitchers walked 9 batters and we only walked once!  Toronto has not been known as a patient team. 

One other note, Sanchez allowed a wild pitch where he made a very poor effort on a curve that was tugged downward and to the left side of the plate.  First, with a runner on base, Sanchez had one of his knees on the ground to give a low target (which makes it harder to move the body either direction), then as expected he was slow to react because of part one), then he wasn’t sure which way to turn his glove and turned it the wrong way and thus a wild pitch.  Sanchez tries to use his glove too often to stop balls in the dirt when he should be using his chest protector.  The good catchers, get their bodies out and around the ball and just let it hit their protector and direct it back toward home plate.  Sanchez has not improved very much IMO.

Sunday, April 15, 2018

After 14 Games

Some points after 14 games:

  •          I guess the season hasn’t officially become serious until a bench-clearing brawl against the Red Sox!  My take was that while Austin went in with spikes up, he did not lift his leg and he clearly didn’t go even slightly out of his path; so it was clean.  Cora didn’t try to get out of the way and then said FU to Austin.  As for the retaliation, it was an odd way to do it in that Kelly threw a slider and then a fastball inside that didn’t connect and then came back with another slider before hitting Austin with a fastball.  I don’t love this part of the game, but I like that Austin charged the mound because I thought what he did was pretty clean and in general we get plunked far more than the Red Sox over the years.  Further, we have a team that should intimidate you and perhaps it will make a pitcher think twice about putting himself and the team in jeopardy when Judge, Stanton and in general a pretty big team come out there to push you around.    Austin got a 5 game suspension and Kelly got 6 games for hitting Austin. 
  •            Speaking of Austin, I mentioned earlier about him needing to drive outside pitches the other way and while he has not done it well, he did take a fastball a few games back and drove it to RC for a single.  That is a great sign and overall he has hit well (3rd player on the team with a .859 OPS)
    ·              While on hitting, I had mentioned how I felt Tyler Wade looked like a deer in headlights last year and played terribly.  The scouts all said that we didn’t see the real Wade and I am hopeful they are right…but he has been even worse this year so far and maybe he just can’t handle it in the majors?  Who knows, but he has an anemic/pathetic line of .094/171/156.  An OPS of .328 is a fast pass to the minors, and let’s not forget the awful throw home he had the other day on what should have been an easy out.  I expect Gleyber Torres to be called up after April 18th as waiting until then gives us another year of control over him (which we have lost with Andujar).
    ·              Ronald Torreyes has earned more playing time, as he is swinging so well right now (1.000 OPS), until Torres is up.  BTW, so we don’t get confused, remember Ronald as “Torre Yes” when we have GleyberTorres called up.
    ·             Speaking of Andjuar, he has not swung the bat well; a little out of synch with his pitch selection and not able to square enough balls up.  While his OPS of .426 is horrible (still almost 100 points higher than Wade) he has shown a little life since his 0-12 start.  Still not lighting up, but some life is good
    ·              Good to see Hicks come back and get in a groove.  This can be really important to us if he can be more like the player in the 1st half of last year rather than the rest of his career type of player.
    ·              Neil Walker has been terrible at the plate as well with a .472 OPS.  He has been a proven hitter and I would expect him to straighten it out, but with the injury to Bird and now Austin out, we need him to hit better. 
    ·             Sanchez has only been a little better defensively this year IMO.  He has blocked balls better, but still doesn’t use his chest protector (he tries to use the glove).  That being said, he made a tremendous throw to 2nd base on a steal.  His release was good and he threw a bullet to 2nd base that was caught and tagged at the same time; absolutely perfect!
    ·             Why are we booing Stanton?  I never understood booing a player unless it was for a lack of hustle or a very stupid decision on the field.  You could boo a player for an off-field issue; for example, something he said or did that is detrimental to the Yankees..
    ·             I hate to say it, but Boston has a very good club and it has nothing to do with their record.  Their lineup is decent/solid and they have excellent pitching.  There is a reason why they won the division last year.  We have to get into a much better groove for extended periods to win the division and/or hope for some injuries to them.  I was very impressed with the way Porcello had his ball moving everywhere against us, he made it very hard to get a good swing.
    ·              Finally, while on the Red Sox game, I really hated the way we handled the 5th inning.  We were up 8-2 and Tanaka was struggling a little, but I would not have taken him out.  Boston had 2nd and 3rd with 1 out and Tanaka got a shallow fly out for the 2nd out.  Now Hanley Ramirez steps to the plate.   Up 8-2 you can decide whether just to walk him to load the bases or you go after him trying to get him but being careful.  To me those are your only options.  I wanted to walk him which is not always the case as why add another base runner when you are up but I didn’t have confidence in Tanaka there as Ramirez seemed to be locked in on Tanaka.  What they did was the worst idea.  The asked Tanaka to make stressful pitches trying to ensure he threw a ball but tried to keep it close enough to see if Ramirez took a crazy swing at a ball.  I would have just auto walked him to save the stress on Tanaka, but I could see to try 1 or maybe 2 pitches to see if he took a cut at something he didn’t, but after 2 balls why have Tanaka throw any more pitches?  The other thing it did was wear him out a little and then he threw a meatball to JD Martinez on the very next pitch and he hits a GS.  It is impossible to know, but if you just walk Ramirez, I don’t think Tanaka makes such a bad pitch.  Really thought that was stupid.
    ·              Betances can’t be used in any high leverage situation until he gets himself straightened out.
    ·             7-7 and we can hit better and we definitely will see a much better performance from our pen.  It has been cold, so I am not going crazy now, we are not even 10% into the season

·        

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Sunday 4-8-18 after 10 Games

Normally, I would go through the past games chronologically, but after today’s game, I will start with a very rough loss; seems like a lot of them for such a young season.

After getting a 5-0 lead with some help from Baltimore in the 1st, the bats only scored 2 more runs in the next 11 innings.

I think Boone really stuck with Montgomery too long and it was a bad mistake.  Montgomery didn’t have good stuff or command and had allowed 9 hits and 2 walks in 4 1/3 innings and had thrown about 85 pitches!  When Valencia stepped to the plate with one out and German was warm and ready to come in, Boone had to make the move.  Valencia in his career is a platoon guy who hits lefties well and doesn’t hit righties well. His career OPS against lefties is .863 and righties it is .683.  But instead of taking out his struggling pitcher against a bad matchup he left him in and Valencia hit a 2 run HR to make the game 5-4.  After the HR, Boone makes the move (TOO LATE)

I think Boone really stuck with German too long and it was a bad mistake. (This IS déjà vu).  German allowed run in the 6th and was having control issues in the 7th, but got 2 outs, even if one was a line drive to 3rd.  He walked Valencia and Santander came to the plate.  He is a switch hitter and only 23 so there are not a lot of stats to tell me his better side, but Shreve was ready in the bullpen and I said to my daughter they need to take German out as he had thrown 49 pitches in relief and was struggling.  He threw 3 straight balls before grooving a 3-0 pitch that Santander green lighted over the fence for a 2 run HR and a 1 run lead.  TOO LATE Boone!

The Yankees showed their own resiliency as Romine got his second two out hit that knocked in a run to tie the game.

Fast forward to the bottom of the 12th and after Baltimore scratched a run across, The Yanks started the inning as Romine walked (excellent offensive game by Romine).  Then Didi walked and in 10 pitches only 1 was a strike (Didi swung at a bad pitch).  Gardner is up in a possible bunting situation.  I say possible because while two guys on is a great bunting situation, you do have Judge and Stanton behind him so this is where strikeouts can hurt you (even though I am not as bent out of shape at strikeouts as most people).  I also say this because this is what was going through my mind.  After 2 balls, I trusted Gardner to swing away as Baltimore was very shallow at the corners.  Gardner took a fastball right down the middle (lower part of strike zone).  Now at 2-1, either swinging away or bunting was OK in my book, but Gardner attempted to bunt a ball far outside and now it was 2-2.  Now, I would definitely take the bunt off as it doesn’t make sense to risk the foul ball/strikeout.  They kept the bunt on and he hit it semi-hard back to the pitcher, who in his haste to get the force at 3rd just booted the ball and we were in business with bases loaded and nobody out…down by one.  I didn’t like the bunt there, but I loved the outcome (sometimes you can do the wrong thing and it works out and vice versa).  The happiness quickly subsided as Judge took a 93 MPH down the middle of the plate for a strike, but then swung at a low splitter and gently hit it back to the pitcher who threw home for the force and then surprisingly threw to 3rd to force Didi who didn’t get a good jump or run full speed the entire time to 3rd!  Now Stanton was up trying to redeem himself from an 0-6 game with 4 K’s and an error, but k’d for his 5th time (2nd 5k game this year).

Bad one, but the skipper could have helped his team a lot with better management of pulling his pitcher!  What makes this loss even worse is that Boston came back from being down 7-2 in the 8th inning to win.

Now to some of the quick notes from past games:
  • The injuries are getting a little out of hand…need to get through it though
  •  In the win, I would not have let Severino come out for the 8th inning after throwing 85               pitches and having a 7-1 lead; this is a marathon, not a sprint.
  • There was a play at the plate that Sanchez made a fundamental mistake by reaching for the body of the runner (away from the plate) rather than putting the glove in a spot that the runner has to get to in order to touch the plate.  The ball beat the runner by plenty.  As he reached for the body, the runner was able to reach and touch home plate about the exact same time as Sanchez touched the runner’s body.  The ump called him safe and I watched it many times in slow motion.  I am not sure what the call should have been, but whatever was made on the field absolutely should have been upheld.  If I had to weigh in I would say 55% safe and 45% out, but somehow they overturned the call to an out, in our favor…we got a break IMO and it covered up Sanchez’ bonehead play.  
  • In another play at the plate that would have won the game, Didi slid head first and was blocked at getting to the plate as the pitcher received the wild pitch back from the catcher.  Didi was clearly out as he didn’t get to the plate, but the pitcher slid his body in his path BEFORE he caught the ball and I think that is blocking the plate without the ball.  It was close as he did catch the ball while sliding but impact with Didi happened before he caught the ball.  The rule is funky as it doesn’t say pitchers (or other players) have different rights than catchers and therefore I think if that was a catcher Didi would have been ruled safe.  To be fair, the rule is not clear to me and I could be wrong here.  One could also say that the pitcher was just trying to catch the ball, but I think that is wrong as he was intentionally trying to stop Didi as he caught the ball.  If Didi goes in strong sliding he probably scores IMO.
  • Just an overall conversation about how poorly the Yankees have hit IMO.  It is early and cold at the stadium and it does matter, but they have consistently been taking strikes and swinging at balls.  They also have been missing very hittable pitches.  Many times good pitching can be the issue, but I say that the Yankees have not taken advantage of the bad pitches and that is bad hitting.

We are 5-5 and have as many bullpen blown games as I would have expected by the end of May.  

 Remember, this is a marathon and not a sprint! 

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

After 5 Games

Game 4: This was the first questionable move made by our new Skipper.  If you didn’t know, the situation was after Kahnle allowed a 2 run HR to Smoak on a fastball in the 7th inning to cut our lead to 4-3, Robertson worked the 8th.  He didn’t have good control of his fastball and got himself in trouble with a single and a double to make it 2nd and 3rd with one out.  The next batter swung at the first offering and weakly hit a grounder to 1st base for a huge break.  Now you had 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs and Donaldson (Righty) followed by Smoak (Lefty) coming up.   Boone intentionally walked Donaldson to load the bases.  Cone immediately said it was a bad move because while the stats clearly agreed with the move, it was based on 5 and 8 AB’s in their meeting with Robertson and Cone didn’t think it was statistically valid enough to warrant the risk with loading the bases.  While I agree with Cone, I don’t think it was so cut and dry because while a limited stat set, it is something to take into consideration.  My main concern was loading the bases which makes it harder for the pitcher to make good pitches and the fact Robertson was not controlling his fastball well.  After walking Donaldson I also would have made a move to one of our lefties to face Smoak based on Robertson not being sharp.  This was something I questioned.  It should be noted that while it didn't work out it was not a terrible move by Boone and early in the year he is getting a feel for guys, but I would not have walked Donaldson and I would have had a lefty face Smoak. The AB against Smoak was a classic interesting battle.  After falling behind 2-0 with a curve and a fastball missing, Robertson threw a curve for a strike and then snuck a fastball by Smoak for a 2-2 count.  After a curve that Smoak barely fouled off, Robertson threw a curve in the dirt for a 3-2 count and now the runners are going on every pitch (another reason why loading the bases can make it tougher).   Robertson threw 2 curves that Smoak weakly fouled off and I was telling my wife (who probably wasn’t listening) that he should continue to throw curves because I am not sure Smoak will center one and I think he would hit a grounder to the right side.  Robertson didn’t agree; he threw a fastball centered to the plate and a grand slam ended the game.  Again, not a terrible move by Boone, but it clearly didn’t work and I think it was questionable (and those veteran readers know I will torch him if needed) and the Yankees should have stuck with breaking ball at least 2 more times and maybe more IMO.

Game 5 home opener against Tampa.  I am not a Jonathan Holder fan, his stuff seems ordinary to me, but he is the 11th man out of the pen so that isn’t too bad.  After striking out the first batter he allowed 4 straight hits and left with bases loaded, 1 out and the score 4-2.  Kahnle came in and looked very sharp, throwing an excellent change and spotting it well and this mixing in his 95 - 96 MPH fastball (I actually would like to see a little more than 6 or 7 MPH difference between his fastball and change which was at 89-90, and see a differential of closer to 8 or 9 MPH, but it had sink, tail and was located well).  He struck out the first batter and quickly was ahead 0-2 after locating his change and fastball on the corners.  I would have run a change off the plate and hope to get a swing or he could have thrown a high fastball, but instead, he threw a change that hung up and Span delivered a 2 run double to tie the game.  It shows you how you can make good pitches, but you need to complete the AB with quality pitches if you want to succeed (Obviously, you can make a mistake and get lucky as well).

Didi, with some help, did the rest as Didi had the same situation as Span came up with Didi being down 0-2 with 2 guys on and the pitcher threw a fastball strike instead of making a pitchers pitch and Didi deposited for his 2nd 3 run HR and finished with 8 RBI’s after getting a cheap hit later in the game.

A few other notes:

Betances blowing up a few nights ago is concerning in that he had all off season to get straightened out with his deliver/release point as well as learning to hold runners on better and he still failed badly.  His stuff is as good as anyone’s in baseball which is why you can’t give up on him, but I was hopeful they would have worked out some of the bugs and maybe simplified his delivery?  It is hard to count on him in any key spot right now.

Tyler Austin – Has produced really well so far with 2 HR’s and a double in 9 AB’s and a walk for an OPS of 1.511.  However, He is going to need to drive the away breaking pitches the other way to continue to have success and pitchers will adjust to him and give him that steady diet away until he can show them he can make them pay.  Glad he is doing well, but adjustments will have to be made.

I didn’t like the fans booing Stanton (even if 0-5 with 5k’s is awful).  I can understand booing lack of hustle or not paying attention, but if our goal as fans is to help the team, I don’t see how booing a guy helps the situation at all?


Our great bullpen has blown 2 games and not been performed well, Judge has been weak so far, Sanchez is 1-19 and we are 3-2 which would be good for 97 wins over 162 games.  This team is very good and will get a lot of wins if we stay relatively healthy.

Sunday, April 1, 2018

2018 SEASON Review!

Hello Yankee fans; after taking two years off, I am going to write at least a few this year and with all the excitement going into this year I want to get this out before too many pre- season games.  (Obviously, we are 2 games into the season by the time I got this out.  I am going to send some of my preseason thoughts so some may not be relevant now, but at least you get an honest view of my thought process before the year.  Two games doesn’t make a season anyway.)

First, I will send out these via email for now (Please let me know if you don’t want to receive these); feel free to pass this on to anyone who is a Yankee fan and I can add anyone to the email list.  I will also be sending out the link via twitter @swigdor22 and the website (I can't get in) so please follow me and this way you will know when I have updated the blog.  That will be forthcoming.

OVERVIEW
Everyone should be excited; Cashman has done an excellent job and we are positioned well for many years to come.  Those of you who have read the blog previously, know that I feel if managed correctly, this team should compete every year because of the spending advantage.  However, the urge to win every year can take its toll if not managed correctly and with patience.  I also have always been in favor of signing studs and offsetting them with “rookies” (much lower priced guys) rather than having a lot of “6-10 million a year” type of players who barely do better than a rookie and have no upside (In terms of salary advantage or improving with age).  Further, when you play a younger player instead of the “10 mil” player you can use that money for more of the sure thing studs.  I would rather have the “sure thing guy and a rookie than two 10 mil dollar guys. The 10 mil type of guys may be one year fill in players as needed.  While I was very critical of the Ellsbury deal at the time of signing because we paid elite money for a decent/solid player (who obviously has not played at even that level), Cashman has done a masterful job since then.  Great examples are the moves with Chapman, trading him and then getting him back along with prospects (Gleyber Torres) was outstanding and rebuilding the farm system has been set (more on all of this later).

While we should be excited, we can’t get too ahead of ourselves and have to remember that we didn’t even win our division last year.  The 162 game sample is far more accurate in predicting the future than two short series’ (3 if you count the play in game against Minnesota) so let’s be realistic as well.  Most of the excitement surrounds the “one game away from the WS,” the youth (Judge, Sanchez and Bird along with Didi becoming a difference maker) along with the signing of a guy who hit 59 HR’s last year!  The other excitement should be about the quality and depth of the bullpen for the full year.

Let’s get into the team…

Didi had an OPS of .796 which is better offensive production we have gotten out of SS since 2009, when Jeter had an OPS of .871, but an adjusted OPS of .900 when you take into account he also stole 30 bases while only being caught 5 times).  While Didi contributed well at the plate, (not be blasphemous to Jeter as looking back on his offense he really was phenomenal for a SS), Didi’s defense was a difference maker and his defense is simply far better than Jeter’s ever was.  An oddity with Didi is that he had an OPS of .882 on the road and only a .707 OPS at home…The only explanation I have is that Didi was better against righty pitchers with an OPS of .848 and only a .653 against lefties and I would imagine teams try to get more lefties in at the stadium?

As for the other young guys to be excited about, let’s talk about Sanchez.  Being an ex-catcher, Sanchez was infuriating to me defensively.  I didn’t have my blog last year to prove I talked about his glaring defensive problems well before they became “public,” but it was obvious to me well before it started to become a talked about item.  In my view, the frustrating part was that it was laziness, not ability.  I am referring mostly to the pathetic attempts at blocking balls in the dirt where he just didn’t move his feet or body.  The receiving part of catching (the art of having soft hands to catch the thrown pitch) may be a weakness, but is not as alarming in my opinion.  The laziness is because he can move his feet and get out on a ball in the dirt and turn it back toward home plate (the way you are supposed to) when he wants to, but he is very slow at reacting and flat out lazy at times.  I think the way to correct it is to adjust his mind set.  The mindset of a catcher should be that every time a guy is on base you have to expect the ball to be in the dirt and are ready to move fast and block it...Maybe on a call for high fastball you don’t expect it to be in the dirt, but you are still on your toes to react to the fastball to make sure it doesn’t give the runners an easy base as you chase it down.  It is clear that Sanchez did not have this mindset and I consider it mental and physical laziness…the good thing is that can be corrected easier than a physical/ability issue.  One thing he can do defensively is throw well; he has a canon which needs to be a little more accurate, but the arm along with the hitting ability is something to be very excited about.  I am very interested to see how he does defensively.

Ellsbury and Hicks- Across the board everyone was talking about how Hicks will dominate this battle and Ellsbury should be traded as he is useless.  I have a little bit of a different take.  First, for perspective, I tend to look at a larger sample size for basing conclusions and I combine that with what I see.  Last year, Hicks improved tremendously for a stretch of time and a lot of it was based on an improved eye at the plate which led to much better plate discipline.  He has always had the tools, but let’s not forget his offensive performance for his career tells us he is a .233 hitter with an OBP of .315 and a slug of .373 for an OPS of .688.  In 2016 for us in 361 plate appearances he had an OPS of .617 for us.  Last year at 27 he had by far his best year with an OPS of .847, so was that a trend and he turned the corner or did he just get hot for the first few months of the year and then fell back to his normal self? The first half of the year he had an OPS of .913!  That is outstanding and with his decent defense (and strong arm) that is an excellent player.  But the 2nd half of the year, albeit only 28 games, he was back at an OPS of .715.  The playoffs were not friendly either, as he had 50 plate appearances and posted an anemic .564 OPS hitting only .196.   So who is he really and what do we expect?  The positive is that he is in his prime at 28 and he is inexpensive (2.8 mil) so he is good value even if he is not what he was last year.  The smart money is that he is improved over his career numbers but not a .900 OPS guy.  I would think a mid .700 OPS is a pretty realistic number and one we should be happy with; anything above would be great.  Not that Spring Training is a great predictor but he had an OPS of .704 in 50 AB’s.  So is that better than what we would expect from Ellsbury?  First, Ellsbury was injured in spring training but when he did play he was 1-14 so that was pretty anemic and more in line with how this battle would play out in most people minds.  I think Hicks will get the benefit of the doubt, but it is not a sure bet Hicks will be the better player against righties.  As “bad” as Ellsbury was last year, he had an OPS of .750 in over 400 plate appearances and still stole 22 bases against only 3 CS.  Ellsbury also had an OPS of .795 against righties which is good for a CF’r.  The point is that while Ellsbury was a bad signing and he is a terrible value, the cost is a sunk one and he is a better option than most and worth having on the team whether he ends up being the starting CF’r in the middle of the year or just to have for very good depth (which is needed as we see every year)  Ironically, Ellsbury is the one who is hurt now, but unless we get someone to take him off our hands he is better to have on the team than not.  The negative is that while Hicks is entering his prime, Ellsbury is 34 and heading downward most likely.  That being said, there is a decent chance Ellsbury is a better option against righties than Hicks.  He doesn’t have close to Hicks arm, but I don’t see Hicks better at getting to balls than Ellsbury and the stats bear that out.  Hicks is slightly better overall in the OF because of his arm, but not enough to warrant too much concern.  The team will be better though if Hicks is more like the guy who played in the first half last year than the rest of his career, so let’s hope that plays out (UPDATE – remember this was written during spring training – Hicks is now injured for 10 days or so.)

Aaron Judge – I am in his chambers!  What’s not to like, especially if strikeouts don’t bother you?  Veteran readers know that I don’t like the ALL Star game and while others try to get people to vote for our Yankees to go to the AS game, I vote for everyone else.  I don’t want my guys doing anything but resting and I surely don’t want them trying to jack balls for HR derby and then screw up their swing (I stated this to many of my friends before the AS game as well).  The jury is out (no pun intended) whether it does have a big impact as Stanton didn’t seem impacted by it, but as Yankee fans we know Judge was.  Still, Judge had an OPS of .939 in the 2nd half (an amazing 1.139 in the 1st half).  One would think his OPS would be in that range, but it would be great if higher.

Gardner – I have been in Gardner’s corner since the beginning and one of the reasons I hated the Ellsbury signing because I wrote that Gardner gives you the same type of production for a ton less money.  People have been trying to have him traded for a while but Cashman has not pulled the trigger and I for one think the Yankees are better for it.  He is the best defensive LF’r in the game and I don’t think it is close.  His offense is also solid.  5 straight year of over 600 plate appearances and last year had an OPS of .778!  While he is not the SB threat he used to be (he isn’t a natural base stealer and struggles reading pitchers), he still was productive swiping 23 bases while only getting caught 5 times.  The days of him swiping 45 bases are gone at 34 years old, but he is still very fast!  He is very important to this team, but with our depth with Ellsbury/Hicks coming off IR, we are covered pretty well.  Gardner is definitely underrated.

I could write about every player, but I do want to write briefly on Bird.  Another situation where we may be getting ahead of ourselves (although I hope we aren’t).  In 2015, at the age of 22, he had an OPS of .871 in 157 AB’s.  This led to a lot of optimism (as it should), but then injuries led him to only get about the same amount of playing time over the next 2 years…which is not a lot.  Last year, he was not good (.710 OPS), but the reason for being optimistic is that he had an OPS of .921 in 57 Plate post season appearances including a dramatic HR against ex Yankee Andrew Miller (who is deadly against lefties).  He clearly will be our starter at 1st base, but he still is young and may have some struggles, including he has had a lot of issues in his ankles.  I still want him batting 5th in my lineup and I will post that later.  (UPDATE – Bird is out for a while with his ankle – ugh). 

Rookie/minor league excitement – Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar are who I expect to begin manning 2nd base and 3rd respectively by the All Star Break.  Andujar needs to work on his fielding but I love watching his stick come through the zone.  Both guys will probably start in the Minors so that we get an extra year of arbitration out of them, but they are a reason for excitement and two of the reasons, I really liked trading away Castro in the Stanton trade.  Castro was mediocre as a defensive 2nd baseman and hit pretty well for one (.792 OPS), but as I said at the beginning, go get your studs and Stanton is one.  (UPDATE – Cashman made two good depth moves getting Drury and Walker.  While Walker is probably a stop gap at 32 years old, he is a hitting 2nd baseman and can give us depth at 1st base.  He has been over an .800 OPS the last 2 years and a career OPS against righties of .842.  We do need some help from the left side so at 4 mil this is a very good signing.  Drury was an interesting trade.  I really don’t know anything about him, but what the stats say, however, it didn’t seem like we gave up too much in the way of where these guys were ranked and remember Drury is only 25 years old so you aren’t renting him.  We have him under arbitration control for the next 4 years.  He is a decent player right now posting a .775 OPS over the last 2 years so there is no reason to think he can’t age well and do even better. He seems to be pretty equal against lefties and righties so he can play every day.  Have to tip your hat to Cashman as he has added some decent players without mortgaging any future and I love the way he mixes things up in a 3 way trade (has done it a few times). 

Stanton – What can you say; add the studs when you can.  On the negative side, it can be said we got the guy after by far his best year and the contract is expensive and very long!  25 mil a year for 10 more years.  He will be about 38 then so this will be another Teixeira, ARod ending most likely after 35.  But, the hope is that he will deliver a .950+ OPS for the next 5-7 years before we see a larger decline.  He had an OPS of 1.007 last year but I think a .950 is a good number.   The other positive is that he had an OPS of 1.095 after the break so he finished well.  I think this is exactly the types of trades we should do and we didn’t give away too much.

I want to touch base on one more player before I get into the pitching…Clint Frazier.  He is an interesting one as he has a very unique batting style/stance/stride that may need to be altered, but he has outstanding bat speed.  He runs well and has good pop in his bat, but his plate discipline needs a lot of work.  7 walks and 43 K’s is a good example.  Only 7 walks bothers me as I like guys who get on base or work the count, but he is only 22 and needs to adjust.  He did hit lefties well with an OPS of .770 (.715 OPS overall), but I think he needs more work.  His minor league numbers were decent with an OPS of .816, but that isn’t great for the minors.  I think Andujar is a better hitter at this juncture.

OK I lied, one more player and that is Tyler Wade.  Last year, I thought he was lost; he showed he was not ready at all and I didn’t like his swing or his approach.  The Yankees brass all say that what we saw wasn’t him and he is really good.  The question is what happened?  He was anemic in the majors last year, but he had an OPS of .842 as a 2nd baseman in the minors and the scouts say he had a great winter.  (UPDATE: Getting Walker means Cashman was not ready to give Wade part of the 2nd base job with Torreyes (who is a decent backup), but if Wade is what the scouts think that is great news…have to see a lot more maturity, but at 23 Wade can be a lot better.

PITCHERS:

I am not as down as many about our starting pitching and mostly because Severino and Montgomery are a year older and we have Sonny Gray all year.  Of course, CC is a year older and while he made the transition into a pitcher from a thrower, it would be shocking if he pitched better this year than last year.  Tanaka is 29 so he is in a good spot pitching.  I think he will be better than last year where he nibbled too much and saw his strikeouts go up but his walks and HR’s went up.  I think nibbling caused him to be behind in the count too much and just flat out grooved too many pitches.  He will always allow a lot of homers, but last year was absurd allowing 35 HR’s in 178 IP; he allowed more than a HR in every start!  I didn’t look up stats but that had to be one of the worst in baseball. 

Severino – Hard to think his stats can get better with an ERA of 2.98 and it probably won’t, but man he has a crazy strong arm.  The fact he can hit 100 MPH on his 100th pitch is special!  He has also done a great job of not giving out free passes.  The hope is he can control his pitches even better, specifically his off speed pitches.  Right now he is a 3 pitch pitcher (fast, slider and changeup) and that is OK, but one slower pitch would be better.  His slider and change are both around 87-90 and while the change should fade to the right and the slider will go down and to the left, if he can either take something off his slider at times, I think it would be very beneficial.  That being said, he is a stud and we need him healthy.

Gray – 28 and in his prime.  He had 2 excellent years followed by an awful year and then a good one last year.  If he can give us another 3.72 ERA, he should win at least 2x as many games as he loses with this offense and bullpen. 

CC (37) – had an ERA of 3.69 last year and was 14-5 (which is almost 3x as many wins as losses.  I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw CC’s ERA climb over 4, but if he stays around 4 I will be happy.  There is a high chance of DL as well with CC

Montgomery – At 25 years old he has upside, but if he can duplicate a 3.88 ERA I would not be disappointed either.  He is pretty savvy for a 25 year old, but he could improve by lowering his walk total a little bit and fine tune his control within the strike zone.

Bullpen:  The depth of quality arms is crazy.  We have many guys who could close if needed and we can really shorten a game if we need to.  I won’t go into all of them, but it is a group that throws really hard.  Chapman is the closer and while he can be shaky, he still throws hard.  I think he needs to trust his breaking ball more and get a good feel for it.  Last year was by far his worst year seeing his ERA over a run higher than his career.  He is 30 and a big guy so I don’t see him slowing much for the next year or two.  If he falters you can pick between, Robertson, Green, Kahnle and the wild card Betances.  At 30 years old, he should have harnessed his windup by now, but his stuff is the most electric on the team, if not the league.  He can be so frustrating, but if he could get a little more control, he is as lights out as anyone (he reminds me of Rob Dibble with less control). We also have a very solid pitcher in Warren who would probably be the first call into the rotation as juggling these guys won’t be easy in terms of keeping them busy.  Warren was excellent last year with a 2.35 ERA.  Chapman and Shreve are the only lefties and Shreve is there as a LOOGY.  While Shreve wasn’t great last year, he did hold lefties to an OPS of .498.  That is excellent.  Now for perspective, Austin Romine who hit .218/.272/.293 had a very weak .565 OPS.  Think about this, Warren, Robertson and Green had OPS’ against of .491, 488 and 454 respectively!  THREE guys with sub .500 OPS against.  None of those guys are our main closer either!

Manager – It is impossible for me to say what kind of manager Boone will be.  I view the manager of the Yankees to have 4 main legs.  There are the X’s and O’s part of game management, the ability to handle the pressure of the NY marketplace including the media, the relationship with the players to maximize their attributes and finally hiring a competent staff.   Then there are the adjustments to all of these, especially as Boone becomes more familiar and confident.  A big portion will be for him to make the moves he feels are correct and not worry about how he gets roasted for the ones that don’t work out, BUT, he must also have the self-reflection to understand why something didn’t work out and then analyze if it was a miscalculation on his part or sometimes the right decision just doesn’t work out.  Then, he must resist the problem that Girardi had where he would come up with a totally BS excuse that anyone who understands the game knows is a disingenuous answer.  I used to write about how I hated how condescending Girardi was to cover up a bad decision; his, “I know better than you” cover-up.  Managers will make mistakes; the good ones make a lot less than the bad ones and more importantly put their players in a position where their skills can be accentuated and limit their exposure to their flaws.  Boone talks the game correctly and is humble as well as smart (we need more of that).  To be fair, Girardi was a good X and O manager; much better than Torre was, but Girardi didn’t handle the media well and didn’t relate to the players that much.  It all came to a head when he basically lied and failed to own his mistake(s) when he didn’t want to challenge the foul tip into Sanchez’ glove which unfortunately led to a grand slam to blow an 8-3 lead and we fell behind Cle 2 games to 0.  Whether it was overturned or not isn’t the issue, it was Girardi’s excuse for not taking a shot in the 6th inning of a game where there was little chance he would have a review close to the same significance the rest of the way…Girardi said, "Probably being a catcher, my thought is I never want to break a pitcher's rhythm, that's how I think about it."  I blew my gasket when I heard that BS…as did Cashman obviously and that was it.  To the credit of Girardi and this team, we came back and beat Cleveland, but it was a bad decision and an equally bad excuse.  BTW, the fact we overcame this is one of the reasons I am excited about this team.

Finishing my thought on Girardi, he overall handled the pressure of NY OK, but didn’t handle the media well and supposedly the players were indifferent to him.  I think his X and O management was pretty decent and his preparation was excellent.  He was average at surrounding himself with good people; I think mostly of leaving Robby Thompson at 3rd much longer than he deserved as he was very bad at 3rdbase (I lost count how many guys we got thrown out at home with 1 or no outs…this blog has accounts of my issues with him).  Overall Girardi was not a bad skipper, in fact he was at the worst average and probably a little better than that (you can see I value the preparation and x and O more than the rest, especially when you consider he is obviously a pretty good guy and had no scandals or issues at all.

THE LINEUP:
Gardner, Judge, Didi, Stanton, Bird, Sanchez, Hicks/Ellsbury, 3rd base and 2nd base
UPDATE: with Bird out, I would juggle the lineup and matchup to the pitcher a little more.  I would put Walker 5th most likely. 
The key here is having the lefties in between Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez.  I like Didi in the 3 spot slightly better because he doesn’t walk as much (more of a free swinger) as Bird and I would expect that slot to have pitchers go at the hitter more with Stanton on deck.  Bird is a patient hitter and takes many grooved 1st pitches and while that is a strength at times, it could hurt him a little in that spot always falling behind as the pitcher does not want to walk guys in front of Stanton.   It is not as critical which one is in that spot but I do like to split the righties up to make matchups harder later in the game for specialists.  I like Judge 2nd as he is a little more disciplined than Stanton and gets on base more.  Judge had an OBP of .402 and a slug% of .627 for an OPS of 1.049.  Stanton had an OBP of .376 and a slug of .631 for an OPS of 1.007.   

The expectations are high as they should be and I am very optimistic about this year and future years as well!